{ "slug": "global-machine-metabolism", "title": "Global machine metabolism", "subtitle": "Global data-centre electricity against human metabolic baselines, 2020–2030", "chart_type": "line", "x_label": "Year", "y_label": "TWh/year", "units": "twh_per_year", "scale": "", "title_note": "Data-centre line uses a 2024 observed anchor, a transparent backcast, and a base-case projection.", "thesis": "Machine intelligence is not weightless software: it is an expanding energy sink fed through planetary infrastructure.", "caveat": "This comparison is about energy demand, not about equivalence of thought, intelligence, or value between people and machine systems.", "caption": "Human lines rise slowly with population; the machine line bends with infrastructure expansion.", "annotations": [ "At the 2024 anchor, global data-centre electricity is already about 29% of the human-brain metabolic baseline used here.", "On the base-case projection, 2030 data-centre electricity reaches roughly 64% of the human-brain baseline.", "The human lines move gradually with population; the machine line moves with build-out, capital, and power demand." ], "method_summary": "Human metabolism is modeled with fixed 100W whole-body and 20W brain baselines per person. Data-centre electricity is anchored to the IEA's 2024 estimate, backcast to 2020 with a 12% annual growth assumption, and projected to the IEA base-case 2030 endpoint.", "method_notes": [ "Population values are rounded derived annual estimates rather than exact mid-year official counts.", "The data-centre series combines one observed anchor, a transparent backcast, and a transparent base-case projection. The chart should be read as a scale argument, not a historical census of every installed machine system.", "Ratios are computed directly from the series shown in the CSV." ], "sources": [ { "label": "International Energy Agency, 2024 data-centre electricity estimate and 2030 base-case projection", "detail": "Used for the 2024 anchor and 2030 endpoint that structure the machine-energy series." }, { "label": "UN World Population Prospects 2024", "detail": "Used as the basis for the rounded annual world-population series across 2020–2030." }, { "label": "Standard human metabolic baselines from physiology literature", "detail": "Whole-body baseline fixed at 100W per person; brain baseline fixed at 20W per person." } ], "alt": "Line chart from 2020 to 2030 comparing human whole-body metabolism at roughly 6,824 to 7,446 TWh per year, human brain metabolism at roughly 1,365 to 1,489 TWh, and data-centre electricity rising from about 264 TWh in 2020 to 945 TWh in 2030.", "rows": [ { "year": 2020, "world_population": 7790000000, "human_body_watts_per_person": 100, "human_brain_watts_per_person": 20, "human_body_twh_per_year": 6824.04, "human_brain_twh_per_year": 1364.81, "data_center_twh_per_year": 263.74, "data_center_vs_body_ratio": 0.038649, "data_center_vs_brain_ratio": 0.193243, "population_source": "UN World Population Prospects 2024 derived annual estimate (rounded)", "data_center_source": "IEA data-centre electricity anchor backcast from 2024 at 12% annual growth", "row_status": "backcast", "method_note": "Human metabolism assumes 100W whole-body and 20W brain baselines per person; data-centre series is backcast from the 2024 IEA anchor." }, { "year": 2021, "world_population": 7870000000, "human_body_watts_per_person": 100, "human_brain_watts_per_person": 20, "human_body_twh_per_year": 6894.12, "human_brain_twh_per_year": 1378.82, "data_center_twh_per_year": 295.39, "data_center_vs_body_ratio": 0.042847, "data_center_vs_brain_ratio": 0.214234, "population_source": "UN World Population Prospects 2024 derived annual estimate (rounded)", "data_center_source": "IEA data-centre electricity anchor backcast from 2024 at 12% annual growth", "row_status": "backcast", "method_note": "Human metabolism assumes 100W whole-body and 20W brain baselines per person; data-centre series is backcast from the 2024 IEA anchor." }, { "year": 2022, "world_population": 7950000000, "human_body_watts_per_person": 100, "human_brain_watts_per_person": 20, "human_body_twh_per_year": 6964.2, "human_brain_twh_per_year": 1392.84, "data_center_twh_per_year": 330.84, "data_center_vs_body_ratio": 0.047506, "data_center_vs_brain_ratio": 0.237529, "population_source": "UN World Population Prospects 2024 derived annual estimate (rounded)", "data_center_source": "IEA data-centre electricity anchor backcast from 2024 at 12% annual growth", "row_status": "backcast", "method_note": "Human metabolism assumes 100W whole-body and 20W brain baselines per person; data-centre series is backcast from the 2024 IEA anchor." }, { "year": 2023, "world_population": 8030000000, "human_body_watts_per_person": 100, "human_brain_watts_per_person": 20, "human_body_twh_per_year": 7034.28, "human_brain_twh_per_year": 1406.86, "data_center_twh_per_year": 370.54, "data_center_vs_body_ratio": 0.052676, "data_center_vs_brain_ratio": 0.263381, "population_source": "UN World Population Prospects 2024 derived annual estimate (rounded)", "data_center_source": "IEA data-centre electricity anchor backcast from 2024 at 12% annual growth", "row_status": "backcast", "method_note": "Human metabolism assumes 100W whole-body and 20W brain baselines per person; data-centre series is backcast from the 2024 IEA anchor." }, { "year": 2024, "world_population": 8090000000, "human_body_watts_per_person": 100, "human_brain_watts_per_person": 20, "human_body_twh_per_year": 7086.84, "human_brain_twh_per_year": 1417.37, "data_center_twh_per_year": 415.0, "data_center_vs_body_ratio": 0.058559, "data_center_vs_brain_ratio": 0.292796, "population_source": "UN World Population Prospects 2024 derived annual estimate (rounded)", "data_center_source": "IEA data-centre electricity anchor for 2024", "row_status": "observed", "method_note": "Human metabolism assumes 100W whole-body and 20W brain baselines per person; 2024 data-centre electricity is the observed anchor for the series." }, { "year": 2025, "world_population": 8160000000, "human_body_watts_per_person": 100, "human_brain_watts_per_person": 20, "human_body_twh_per_year": 7148.16, "human_brain_twh_per_year": 1429.63, "data_center_twh_per_year": 476.01, "data_center_vs_body_ratio": 0.066592, "data_center_vs_brain_ratio": 0.33296, "population_source": "UN World Population Prospects 2024 derived annual estimate (rounded)", "data_center_source": "IEA 2030 base-case projection interpolated from 2024 anchor", "row_status": "projected", "method_note": "Human metabolism assumes 100W whole-body and 20W brain baselines per person; data-centre series is projected from the 2024 IEA anchor to the 2030 base-case endpoint." }, { "year": 2026, "world_population": 8230000000, "human_body_watts_per_person": 100, "human_brain_watts_per_person": 20, "human_body_twh_per_year": 7209.48, "human_brain_twh_per_year": 1441.9, "data_center_twh_per_year": 545.98, "data_center_vs_body_ratio": 0.075731, "data_center_vs_brain_ratio": 0.378653, "population_source": "UN World Population Prospects 2024 derived annual estimate (rounded)", "data_center_source": "IEA 2030 base-case projection interpolated from 2024 anchor", "row_status": "projected", "method_note": "Human metabolism assumes 100W whole-body and 20W brain baselines per person; data-centre series is projected from the 2024 IEA anchor to the 2030 base-case endpoint." }, { "year": 2027, "world_population": 8300000000, "human_body_watts_per_person": 100, "human_brain_watts_per_person": 20, "human_body_twh_per_year": 7270.8, "human_brain_twh_per_year": 1454.16, "data_center_twh_per_year": 626.24, "data_center_vs_body_ratio": 0.086131, "data_center_vs_brain_ratio": 0.430654, "population_source": "UN World Population Prospects 2024 derived annual estimate (rounded)", "data_center_source": "IEA 2030 base-case projection interpolated from 2024 anchor", "row_status": "projected", "method_note": "Human metabolism assumes 100W whole-body and 20W brain baselines per person; data-centre series is projected from the 2024 IEA anchor to the 2030 base-case endpoint." }, { "year": 2028, "world_population": 8370000000, "human_body_watts_per_person": 100, "human_brain_watts_per_person": 20, "human_body_twh_per_year": 7332.12, "human_brain_twh_per_year": 1466.42, "data_center_twh_per_year": 718.3, "data_center_vs_body_ratio": 0.097966, "data_center_vs_brain_ratio": 0.489832, "population_source": "UN World Population Prospects 2024 derived annual estimate (rounded)", "data_center_source": "IEA 2030 base-case projection interpolated from 2024 anchor", "row_status": "projected", "method_note": "Human metabolism assumes 100W whole-body and 20W brain baselines per person; data-centre series is projected from the 2024 IEA anchor to the 2030 base-case endpoint." }, { "year": 2029, "world_population": 8440000000, "human_body_watts_per_person": 100, "human_brain_watts_per_person": 20, "human_body_twh_per_year": 7393.44, "human_brain_twh_per_year": 1478.69, "data_center_twh_per_year": 823.89, "data_center_vs_body_ratio": 0.111435, "data_center_vs_brain_ratio": 0.557176, "population_source": "UN World Population Prospects 2024 derived annual estimate (rounded)", "data_center_source": "IEA 2030 base-case projection interpolated from 2024 anchor", "row_status": "projected", "method_note": "Human metabolism assumes 100W whole-body and 20W brain baselines per person; data-centre series is projected from the 2024 IEA anchor to the 2030 base-case endpoint." }, { "year": 2030, "world_population": 8500000000, "human_body_watts_per_person": 100, "human_brain_watts_per_person": 20, "human_body_twh_per_year": 7446.0, "human_brain_twh_per_year": 1489.2, "data_center_twh_per_year": 945.0, "data_center_vs_body_ratio": 0.126914, "data_center_vs_brain_ratio": 0.634569, "population_source": "UN World Population Prospects 2024 derived annual estimate (rounded)", "data_center_source": "IEA 2030 base-case projection interpolated from 2024 anchor", "row_status": "projected", "method_note": "Human metabolism assumes 100W whole-body and 20W brain baselines per person; data-centre series is projected from the 2024 IEA anchor to the 2030 base-case endpoint." } ], "row_status_values": [ "backcast", "observed", "projected" ] }